Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x75dc…4f82
sports · 1678 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$12,388 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12,212 · open +$176
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$396
Realized+$12,212
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses895 / 942
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,485
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1837 / 1678
History coverage79d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 1837 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,090
7 days−$4,354
14 days−$3,179
30 days+$1,867
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Under 32¢ 92¢ $55 $160 +$104 (+190%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Under 26¢ 90¢ $35 $121 +$86 (+244%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Under 82¢ 94¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+15%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 62¢ 55¢ $29 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Over 62¢ 58¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Minnesota Lynx 49¢ 23¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-53%)
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 233.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 90¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Tien vs. Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 47¢ 0¢ $349 $0 −$349 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Spread: Texas Longhorns (-1.5) North Carolina State Wolfpack 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 112.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $359 $0 −$359 (-100%)
Denver Pioneers vs. North Dakota State Bison North Dakota State Bison 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-4.5) Connecticut Huskies 55¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Mexico City: Luka Pavlovic vs Aidan Mayo Aidan Mayo 31¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 106.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5 Under 20¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 45¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Wuning: Yi Zhou vs Kody Pearson Yi Zhou 89¢ 0¢ $405 $0 −$405 (-100%)
McNally vs. Mboko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 98¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Lightning 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Griekspoor vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 27¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 No 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tien vs. Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $349 −$349 -100%
Spread: Texas Longhorns (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $359 −$359 -100%
Denver Pioneers vs. North Dakota State Bison Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Griekspoor vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Bradley Braves Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Justo vs. Fernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: UNCW Seahawks (-5.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Franco Agamenone vs. Guido Justo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Brown Bears (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-15.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Hurricanes vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 160.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Pegula vs. Bencic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Houston Cougars vs. BYU Cougars Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. North Carolina Central Eagles: O/U 13 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-7.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-11.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Fruhvirtova vs. Rogers: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Capitals vs. Oilers Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Wild vs. Oilers Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Crawford vs. Ivashka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. VMI Keydets: O/U 145.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Oregon Ducks vs. Northwestern Wildcats Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Alcaraz vs. Rinderknech: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Menelaos Efstathiou vs. Toby Samuel: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Houston Christian Huskies vs. New Orleans Privateers: O/U 142.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
1H Spread: Hornets (-4.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Rybakov vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. UC Davis Aggies Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-24.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Utah vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Davidson Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
VCU Rams vs. Richmond Spiders: O/U 155.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Kings (-2.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-2.5) Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Rio Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Francesco Passaro Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Stephens vs. Osorio: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
76ers vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$18,416
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $34 0m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $13 1m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 SELL Under 81¢ $70 1m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Under 89¢ $78 2m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $25 11m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 BUY Under 82¢ $29 52m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 87¢ $19 57m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 SELL Under 27¢ $52 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Under 29¢ $59 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 SELL Under 22¢ $56 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Under 19¢ $50 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 BUY Under 32¢ $56 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 BUY Under 26¢ $36 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 2h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 54¢ $15 2h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 71¢ $4 2h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $20 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $67 4h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 78¢ $9 5h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 59¢ $67 5h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $64 6h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $69 6h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 28¢ $12 6h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $13 6h
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 12h
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 71¢ $7 12h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Hannah Klugman 73¢ $6 13h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Emma Raducanu 75¢ $35 13h
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano BUY Filippo Romano 66¢ $27 14h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 15¢ $6 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -62.9% -66.4% 18% 18% -52.4%
≤30d 599 -23.7% -31.0% 35% 33% -6.7%
≤90d 1837 +0.4% -9.2% 49% 45% -1.1%
all 1837 +0.4% -9.2% 49% 45% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 45% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 40% -10.6%
15% -25.8% 34% -19.2%
20% -33.1% 27% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.96 · official $395.96 (match) · 3500 history records