Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75dc…6a1d sports 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$308 (+2%) realized +$315 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%62W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 234d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$2,966
other 9% +$94
crypto 0% −$82
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -34.3% -40.5% 30% 28% -27.3%
≤30d 69 -35.1% -41.2% 28% 26% -22.2%
≤90d 69 -35.1% -41.2% 28% 26% -22.2%
all 217 -25.4% -32.5% 29% 26% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 26% -28.2%
10% -38.9% 24% -35.1%
15% -44.8% 21% -41.4%
20% -50.2% 17% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$45 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$315
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses62 / 155
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions3
Markets (closed)217 / 220
History coverage234d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $360 +$439 +122%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $90 +$88 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $58 −$57 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $57 −$49 -86%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $161 +$19 +12%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $60 −$31 -52%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $108 +$42 +38%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $90 +$43 +47%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $110 −$19 -18%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$99 +194%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$45 +220%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 −$82 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $352 +$84 +24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $376 −$213 -57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $187 −$4 -2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $208 +$12 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $420 +$48 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $464 +$59 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $283 +$106 +37%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $192 −$23 -12%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 +$81 +234%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $64 −$63 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $91 −$30 -33%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $227 −$173 -76%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $240 −$86 -36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $128 −$125 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $204 −$100 -49%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $143 −$140 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $276 −$100 -36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $812 −$181 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.08 · official $83.08 (match) · 886 history records