Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

75 0x75dd…299d crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$141 (-17%) realized −$141 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate35%6W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day36.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-25.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-17.5%	-25.4%	35%	29%	-39.7%
≤30d	17	-17.5%	-25.4%	35%	29%	-39.7%
≤90d	17	-17.5%	-25.4%	35%	29%	-39.7%
all	17	-17.5%	-25.4%	35%	29%	-39.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover36.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.4%	29%	-39.7%
10% ← realistic here	-32.5%	24%	-45.5%
15%	-39.0%	24%	-50.8%
20%	-45.0%	24%	-55.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +44% → late -73% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$50 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.51 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$141

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses6 / 11

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day36.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 17	$51	−$51	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 17	$17	−$16	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$31	+120%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	Jun 17	$137	−$101	-74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 17	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 17	$53	−$53	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Jun 17	$131	−$131	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$35	+134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 16	$53	+$168	+319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 16	$4	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 16	$53	−$1	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 16	$105	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 16	$52	+$44	+85%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$2	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$2	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$2	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$2	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$2	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$2	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$2	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$2	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$51	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	SELL Up	13¢	$36	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	45¢	$137	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$2	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$2	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$2	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$2	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$2	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$26	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$53	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$52	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$52	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$53	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$26	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$26	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$53	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$2	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$2	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	SELL Up	30¢	$51	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$53	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$26	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records