Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75de…ae49 other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$34
other 18% −$48
politics 10% +$7
world 7% −$1
weather 2% $0
culture 2% +$1
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.0% -24.9% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -23.0% -30.3% 54% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 80 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 2% -10.4%
all 80 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 2% -10.4%
10% -23.3% 2% -19.0%
15% -30.7% 2% -26.8%
20% -37.5% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 45
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage53d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $134 −$4 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $127 −$3 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 23? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 18 $118 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 12 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $5 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $0 $0 -16%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 11 $0 $0 -16%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $0 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $0 $0 -15%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $0 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 11 $1 $0 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $356 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $0 $0 -4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $0 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $205 −$7 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $20 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $76 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $57 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $19 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $3 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $1 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $1 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $3 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $3 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $9 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $66 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 45¢ $58 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $49 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $47 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $96 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $99 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $130 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $107 5d
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele BUY No $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? BUY No $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 28d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? SELL No 99¢ $119 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records