Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75de…98c0 tech 388 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,468 (-4%) realized −$3,464 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate81%301W / 72L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$131
14 days+$171
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 59% +$210
other 35% −$3,618
politics 4% −$205
world 2% +$52
crypto 1% −$43
sports 0% −$4
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -21.5% -29.0% 43% 10% -6.8%
≤30d 60 -14.5% -22.7% 60% 10% -8.7%
≤90d 272 -12.5% -20.8% 76% 6% -14.5%
all 373 -9.2% -17.9% 81% 6% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 6% -13.1%
10% -25.7% 3% -21.4%
15% -32.9% 3% -29.0%
20% -39.5% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$90 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$1,175
Realized−$3,464
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses301 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)373 / 388
History coverage109d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,150 $1,146 −$4 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 30¢ 33¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $701 +$27 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $405 +$25 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $403 +$7 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,054 +$78 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 +$8 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1,001 +$15 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $513 −$299 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1,301 +$23 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -70%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,009 +$308 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $706 −$57 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $701 +$16 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 10? Jun 10 $250 +$3 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 10? Jun 10 $80 +$1 +1%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $401 +$13 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $620 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$4 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +38%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 8? Jun 08 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $420 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $704 +$88 +12%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 05 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $100 −$62 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $723 +$62 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June May 31 $201 +$18 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 25 $491 +$11 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $301 +$12 +4%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $573 −$564 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,152 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $729 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $401 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $409 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 45h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 45h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $701 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $401 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,101 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $14 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,175.20 · official $1,175.20 (match) · 893 history records