Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
75 0x75df…3178 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$3
other 20% +$8
politics 6% −$1
finance 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 0% -9.1%
all 36 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 6% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -8.2%
10% -17.5% 6% -17.0%
15% -25.5% 3% -25.0%
20% -32.8% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage486d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $74 +$4 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $4 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $43 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $37 −$2 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Dec 10 $12 $0 +1%
Will Alberto Undurraga win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 23 $0 $0 -50%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 08 $7 −$1 -7%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $6 $0 -7%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $8 +$7 +88%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-02-19? Mar 04 $6 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $31 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $15 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $24 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $34 28h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $34 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $14 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $43 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 18d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.88 · official $6.88 (match) · 119 history records