Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75e5…b79d other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate84%21W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$14
finance 19% $0
crypto 15% $0
world 4% +$1
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -30.7% -37.3% 33% 17% -12.2%
≤30d 23 -6.9% -15.8% 83% 4% -11.1%
≤90d 25 -6.0% -14.9% 84% 4% -10.9%
all 25 -6.0% -14.9% 84% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 4% -10.9%
10% -23.1% 0% -19.4%
15% -30.5% 0% -27.2%
20% -37.3% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses21 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)25 / 34
History coverage44d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $209 $209 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $112 $112 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 +15%
Will the announcers say "Pounce" during UFC 250? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Jun 01 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $55 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? May 25 $3 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $2 $0 +6%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $112 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $209 2d
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $211 2d
Will the announcers say "Pounce" during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $213 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $14 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $225 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 18d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 18d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $225 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $3 19d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $0 19d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY No 99¢ $2 22d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 BUY No 92¢ $2 27d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 27d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $3 27d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 28d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs BUY Legacy 94¢ $2 28d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 28d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 28d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.81 · official $394.81 (match) · 94 history records