Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75eb…cbc7 politics 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$885per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$36
economics 3% $0
other 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$901) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage72d
Avg bet$885
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,760 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $870 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $873 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $879 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,773 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $883 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $887 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $901 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $901 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,805 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $905 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 47h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $863 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $865 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $864 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $866 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $868 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $866 14d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $867 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $868 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $870 17d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $867 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $869 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $870 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $871 24d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $871 25d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $872 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $872 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $873 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $872 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $874 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $878 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $880 33d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $878 34d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $879 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $880 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $881 37d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $880 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.89 · official $38.89 (match) · 115 history records