Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75f7…ed04 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$2
other 17% $0
politics 7% $0
crypto 6% +$3
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.8%
all 31 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage468d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $42 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $57 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $38 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $119 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $104 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $42 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Dec 14 $12 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 24 $13 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Mar 27 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 24 $2 $0 +2%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
Israel wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 12 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $17 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $1 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $38 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $3 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $46 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $46 32h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $5 41h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $2 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $6 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $50 44h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $49 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $38 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $49 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $49 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $44 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records