Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75fd…7265 weather 263 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized +$22 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate73%132W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% −$14
politics 34% −$31
other 10% −$8
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 36% -11.2%
≤30d 180 -1.8% -11.2% 73% 37% -10.5%
≤90d 180 -1.8% -11.2% 73% 37% -10.5%
all 180 -1.8% -11.2% 73% 37% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 37% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 21% -19.1%
15% -27.4% 13% -26.9%
20% -34.5% 8% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses132 / 48
Open positions83
Markets (closed)180 / 263
History coverage8d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 83 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$3 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-7%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $21 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 27 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 25? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 26 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 25? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25? Jun 26 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $12 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 +$8 +770%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$3 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24? Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? Jun 25 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24? Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 24? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $50 20m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 2h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 2h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $837.77 · official $838.12 (match) · 408 history records