Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75fd…9924 crypto 73 markets active 1d ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+0%) realized +$55 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate60%41W / 27L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4,853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$214
other 27% +$54
crypto 14% −$75
politics 10% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.2% -15.2% 0% 0% -18.5%
≤30d 8 -22.5% -29.8% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 27 -7.6% -16.4% 59% 30% -6.6%
all 68 -15.7% -23.7% 60% 31% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 31% -10.7%
10% -31.0% 18% -19.2%
15% -37.7% 9% -27.0%
20% -43.8% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$34 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$4,853
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses41 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage123d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,591 $1,608 +$17 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,544 $1,558 +$15 (+1%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,060 $1,075 +$15 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 92¢ 95¢ $579 $600 +$21 (+4%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $182 −$23 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1,900 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $286 −$97 -34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $42 −$20 -47%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? May 31 $1,599 +$26 +2%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 23 $1,570 +$38 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $1,342 +$71 +5%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2,635 +$162 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $330 +$35 +11%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 02 $274 +$28 +10%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 01 $78 +$7 +9%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $5 $0 -6%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $101 +$20 +19%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $14 −$7 -52%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 10 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 09 $420 +$15 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 08 $68 +$14 +21%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $2,128 +$79 +4%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $995 +$124 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 13 $616 −$616 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Miami address? Mar 09 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 27 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of February Feb 25 $171 +$26 +15%
Will Trump say "Gold Card" or "Trump card" during the 2026 State of th Feb 25 $24 +$13 +54%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 24 $164 +$7 +4%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of February Feb 23 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? Feb 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Feb 21 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 21 $130 +$6 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $50 +$3 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $50 +$2 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 20 $50 +$2 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026? Feb 15 $4 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $333 33h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $60 41h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $64 41h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $91 41h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $63 41h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $353 41h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $95 2d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 2d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 2d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 2d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $108 2d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 2d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 2d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $69 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 3d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 92¢ $10 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 92¢ $276 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $190 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $309 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $170 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 93¢ $140 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,853.47 · official $4,853.47 (match) · 554 history records