Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

75 0x75fe…ab30 world 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$66 (-18%) realized −$69 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$124per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$24 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$127

Realized−$69

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage3d

Avg bet$124

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	Yes	79¢	81¢	$124	$127	+$3 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner	Jun 16	$7	−$7	-98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 15	$42	−$42	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	BUY Yes	79¢	$124	1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	SELL No	24¢	$124	1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	BUY No	39¢	$198	4h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner	BUY Estar Backs	26¢	$7	28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	5¢	$13	2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	22¢	$29	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.79 · official $126.79 (match) · 6 history records