Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7603…e3c1 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$478 (-13%) realized −$477 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days−$16
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$20
crypto 33% −$176
sports 15% −$107
politics 9% −$169
tech 5% +$8
culture 2% −$74
world 2% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.6% +5.5% 33% 33% +32.1%
≤30d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 29% -16.8%
≤90d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 29% -16.8%
all 68 -13.7% -21.9% 41% 31% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 31% -21.8%
10% -29.4% 25% -29.3%
15% -36.2% 25% -36.1%
20% -42.5% 16% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$477
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage211d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$55 +360%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$8 -16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$55 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $58 −$58 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 +$7 +48%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 +$100 +487%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$19 -63%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -8%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $16 +$19 +117%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? Jan 11 $193 +$23 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jan 10 $183 +$5 +3%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January Jan 09 $181 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $170 +$11 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $168 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press confe Jan 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $153 +$15 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $146 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $140 +$6 +4%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $33 +$12 +38%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Jan 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jan 03 $76 +$15 +20%
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jan 03 $43 +$16 +37%
Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar- Jan 03 $20 +$18 +91%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 03 $137 −$137 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Jan 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Jan 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jan 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Trump say "Australia" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "JD" or "Vance" while addressing the nation on December Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14? Dec 17 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 16 $7 −$5 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? Dec 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $86 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $71 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 20h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL 57¢ $42 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 12¢ $10 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 66¢ $51 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $155 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 86¢ $98 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 92¢ $98 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $99 7d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 8d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $58 8d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $15 9d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 91¢ $120 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 10d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 10d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 10d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 10d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 68¢ $39 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.38 · official $84.38 (match) · 162 history records