Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7604…78b5 sports 396 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%179W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days+$38
14 days+$201
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$532
world 25% −$145
politics 17% −$38
other 13% −$98
finance 5% +$111
crypto 2% −$82
culture 1% −$61
economics 0% +$2
tech 0% −$7
weather 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +28.5% +16.3% 50% 50% -5.3%
≤30d 22 +5.1% -4.9% 41% 36% -15.4%
≤90d 112 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 32% -13.2%
all 389 -2.6% -11.9% 46% 43% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 43% -8.7%
10% -20.3% 39% -17.5%
15% -28.0% 35% -25.4%
20% -35.1% 28% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$30 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses179 / 210
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions4
Markets (closed)389 / 396
History coverage231d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 34¢ 42¢ $253 $306 +$53 (+21%)
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card) Christian Rodriguez 66¢ 66¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $65 $50 −$15 (-24%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 43¢ 40¢ $52 $47 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $97 +$200 +206%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $182 +$43 +24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 −$15 -45%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$48 +134%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $174 −$155 -89%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$51 +98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $86 −$18 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $150 −$116 -78%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 −$99 -98%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 10 $98 +$79 +81%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $204 +$121 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $100 +$62 +62%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 05 $103 −$5 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $90 −$36 -40%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $280 −$46 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $63 −$2 -3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $167 +$52 +31%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco May 30 $214 +$5 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 29 $183 −$181 -99%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 25 $103 −$29 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $242 −$142 -59%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 19 $64 +$49 +76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 17 $153 −$26 -17%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $151 +$99 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 17 $152 +$63 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 14 $78 −$77 -99%
Major US official out by May 31? May 13 $31 +$23 +74%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 13 $84 +$13 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 13 $112 +$27 +24%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $137 −$8 -6%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $201 +$100 +50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 06 $87 −$13 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 06 $140 −$18 -13%
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2 May 06 $12 +$2 +20%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $10 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $348 −$28 -8%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Ca May 02 $93 +$57 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $111 +$44 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $122 +$55 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 29 $97 −$10 -10%
Will Trump say "Winston" or "Churchill" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $21 +$12 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 25 $53 −$52 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 24 $129 −$84 -65%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $45 −$31 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $333 +$18 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 23 $178 −$54 -30%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Apr 22 $314 −$107 -34%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $95 +$84 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 43¢ $52 2h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 66¢ $133 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 51¢ $49 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 57¢ $101 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $95 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $97 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $224 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $19 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $34 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $182 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $41 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $15 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $19 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 63¢ $27 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 63¢ $26 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 50¢ $53 6d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL Yes 51¢ $68 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $33 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $2 7d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 7d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 7d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 7d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $85 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $174 10d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $93 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.96 · official $729.48 · 1366 history records