Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7608…9440 other 59 markets active 23h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-4%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%23W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$129
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$200
sports 16% +$152
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -22.3% -29.7% 34% 32% -25.1%
≤30d 59 +14.3% +3.4% 39% 37% -14.8%
≤90d 59 +14.3% +3.4% 39% 37% -14.8%
all 59 +14.3% +3.4% 39% 37% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 37% -14.8%
10% -6.5% 27% -23.0%
15% -15.6% 24% -30.4%
20% -23.8% 17% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage9d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$36 -36%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +17%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$29 +474%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$3 -13%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$38 -84%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$12 +16%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$40 +49%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -90%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$8 -52%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 +$45 +68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$95 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +113%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$7 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 28¢ $62 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 47h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 47h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records