Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7609…4094 other 554 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$433 (-1%) realized −$418 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%306W / 247L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$28
14 days−$174
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$519
sports 21% −$83
crypto 3% +$120
world 1% −$76
politics 0% −$19
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -12.0% -20.4% 57% 49% -13.1%
≤30d 144 -18.8% -26.5% 56% 47% -13.6%
≤90d 514 -17.6% -25.5% 54% 48% -12.5%
all 553 -11.0% -19.5% 55% 49% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 49% -11.0%
10% -27.2% 37% -19.5%
15% -34.2% 31% -27.3%
20% -40.7% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$30 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$418
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses306 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)553 / 554
History coverage100d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 553 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $81 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$8 +52%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$3 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$17 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 +$4 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $7 +$4 +57%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $4 +$6 +146%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $35 −$35 -99%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $15 +$3 +18%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $38 +$15 +40%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $15 +$14 +90%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $7 +$2 +32%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $20 +$9 +44%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $72 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.30 (match) · 1306 history records