Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

76
0x7609…1443
other · 55 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$490 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$507 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized−$507
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses7 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage223d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 1 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$45
14 days−$39
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 70¢ 68¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Chappell Roan be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GMGN FDV above $500M one day after launch Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos Jun 12 $173 −$2 -1%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 10 $89 −$7 -8%
Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $97 −$15 -15%
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? Jun 08 $88 −$11 -12%
Will Luigi Del Prete win the 2026 Frattamaggiore mayoral election? Jun 04 $42 −$1 -2%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.9M and 7.0M in April? Jun 03 $41 +$6 +16%
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch May 29 $104 −$32 -31%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $204 in May? May 25 $40 −$5 -12%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $67 −$17 -25%
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301? May 24 $104 −$6 -5%
Will Bernie say "Trumpism" in Maine? May 23 $15 $0 -2%
Will Bernie say "Coffee" in Maine? May 23 $160 −$19 -12%
Will Bernie say "Nuclear" in Maine? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bernie say "Greed" or "Greedy" in Maine? May 22 $29 −$2 -8%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut May 19 $33 −$1 -2%
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth May 19 $170 −$38 -22%
Will HawkEye 360's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.25B at market cl May 06 $17 −$4 -25%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 05 $32 −$5 -14%
Will Chappell Roan be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 04 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Rihanna be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 04 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Sabrina Carpenter be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 03 $10 $0 -3%
Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings? May 02 $37 −$1 -3%
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Apr 30 $64 −$13 -20%
Will Drake feature Giveon on ICEMAN? Apr 29 $3 $0 -4%
Will "Macroeconomy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc Apr 26 $5 −$5 -84%
Will "Hillary" or "Clinton" be said during the next episode of the All Apr 24 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026? Apr 24 $3 −$2 -67%
Will STRC market cap hit $14B by June 30? Apr 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Apr 22 $38 −$2 -4%
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 22 $17 $0 -2%
Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 22 $24 −$8 -35%
Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? Apr 21 $7 $0 -4%
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026 Apr 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? Apr 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by Apr 02 $200 −$161 -80%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $880 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $137 +$4 +3%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 27 $570 −$30 -5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Mar 25 $255 −$27 -10%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $60 −$38 -63%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 16 $130 −$20 -15%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 3 Mar 08 $10 −$9 -90%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 08 $9 −$6 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$343
sports 36% −$39
world 15% −$83
politics 4% −$13
finance 2% −$19
tech 2% −$5
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 70¢ $51 1h
GMGN FDV above $500M one day after launch SELL No 82¢ $9 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7h
GMGN FDV above $500M one day after launch BUY No 82¢ $9 10h
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL No 37¢ $1 13h
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY No 37¢ $1 21h
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL No 37¢ $1 26h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos SELL No 89¢ $57 43h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos SELL No 89¢ $10 2d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos BUY No 88¢ $66 2d
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY No 37¢ $1 3d
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL No 37¢ $1 3d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos SELL No 88¢ $29 3d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos BUY No 88¢ $29 3d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos SELL No 88¢ $58 3d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos BUY No 88¢ $59 3d
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? SELL Yes 68¢ $80 4d
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? SELL Yes 68¢ $2 4d
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY No 37¢ $1 4d
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $89 4d
Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $78 4d
Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $5 4d
Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $97 4d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos SELL Yes 14¢ $16 5d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos BUY Yes 15¢ $19 5d
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $77 5d
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $88 7d
Will Luigi Del Prete win the 2026 Frattamaggiore mayoral election? SELL No 52¢ $10 9d
Will Luigi Del Prete win the 2026 Frattamaggiore mayoral election? BUY No 52¢ $10 9d
Will Luigi Del Prete win the 2026 Frattamaggiore mayoral election? SELL No 52¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.4% -27.9% 0% 0% -18.2%
≤30d 19 -13.0% -21.3% 5% 5% -20.7%
≤90d 47 -19.1% -26.8% 9% 2% -21.3%
all 54 -18.3% -26.1% 13% 6% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 6% -20.4%
10% -33.2% 4% -28.0%
15% -39.6% 2% -35.0%
20% -45.6% 0% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.32 · official $49.32 (match) · 235 history records