Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
76 0x760b…1577 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$579 (-15%) realized −$579 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$535
7 days+$535
14 days−$199
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$131
sports 46% +$32
crypto 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.5% -10.9% 61% 56% +24.8%
≤30d 29 -10.2% -18.7% 55% 52% -14.3%
≤90d 29 -10.2% -18.7% 55% 52% -14.3%
all 29 -10.2% -18.7% 55% 52% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 52% -14.3%
10% -26.5% 41% -22.5%
15% -33.6% 31% -30.0%
20% -40.1% 24% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$90 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$579
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage10d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 +$30 +30%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $109 +$34 +31%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $505 +$263 +52%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $102 +$93 +92%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $201 +$38 +19%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $12 +$12 +101%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$24 +118%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $104 +$123 +118%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $40 +$9 +22%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $6 −$4 -58%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $25 +$25 +99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $797 +$204 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $166 −$163 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$55 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 +$7 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $240 −$192 -80%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$43 +84%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $499 −$303 -61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $131 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $143 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $14 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $768 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $193 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $109 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $101 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $2 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $30 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $20 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $16 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $4 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $40 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $100 3h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $505 4h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $239 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 4h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 4h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 5h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 27h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 27h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL No 83¢ $49 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records