Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x760b…6dc8 sports 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,492 (-11%) realized −$4,653 · open +$161
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%112W / 92L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$354est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$2,768
14 days−$3,044
30 days−$3,044
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$3,597
other 9% −$561
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +3.3% -6.5% 56% 56% -18.5%
≤30d 106 +2.4% -7.4% 56% 56% -19.3%
≤90d 106 +2.4% -7.4% 56% 56% -19.3%
all 204 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 55% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 55% -19.6%
10% -20.6% 54% -27.3%
15% -28.3% 50% -34.3%
20% -35.3% 41% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$199 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$702
Realized−$4,653
Unrealized+$161
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses112 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$354
Open positions1
Markets (closed)204 / 206
History coverage120d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 77¢ 99¢ $541 $702 +$161 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $369 +$176 +48%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $221 +$149 +67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $110 +$111 +101%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $111 −$110 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $417 −$412 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $250 +$168 +67%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp Jun 18 $179 +$71 +40%
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $111 +$68 +62%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $380 −$376 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $98 +$78 +79%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$100 +101%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $274 −$174 -64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $172 +$102 +59%
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev Jun 17 $123 +$49 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 +$12 +46%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $111 −$109 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Hurkacz vs Altmaier Jun 17 $311 −$279 -90%
Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Altmaier Jun 17 $241 +$70 +29%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Shapovalov Jun 17 $180 +$61 +34%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $111 +$69 +62%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $98 −$97 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $159 −$157 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $112 +$96 +86%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $111 −$62 -56%
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Fokina Jun 16 $322 −$317 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Diallo Jun 16 $223 +$99 +45%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $315 −$117 -37%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $368 −$106 -29%
Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Hurkacz Jun 16 $75 +$32 +43%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $47 +$28 +60%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Mannarino Jun 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Bublik Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $203 +$175 +86%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $291 +$197 +68%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $397 −$391 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $515 +$376 +73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $506 +$326 +64%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $460 −$258 -56%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $405 +$308 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $198 +$254 +128%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $198 +$313 +158%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $96 −$95 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $190 +$103 +54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $178 +$211 +118%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $197 −$195 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Paul vs Svajda Jun 15 $274 +$101 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 77¢ $545 42m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $545 44m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $369 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 59¢ $221 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $221 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $110 4h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 70¢ $111 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $417 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $418 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $250 7h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp BUY Paul 71¢ $179 10h
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $179 12h
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 61¢ $111 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $380 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $176 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $204 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $98 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 49¢ $102 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $100 26h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL No 23¢ $99 26h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $274 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $274 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $172 28h
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev SELL Medvedev 100¢ $172 28h
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev BUY Medvedev 71¢ $123 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $37 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $26 30h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 39¢ $111 31h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 69¢ $32 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701.86 · official $701.86 (match) · 356 history records