Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x7610…9073 crypto 143 markets active 7h ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate67%92W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$2
other 15% +$24
world 4% +$6
sports 3% −$6
finance 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -2.9% -12.2% 73% 40% -9.1%
≤30d 137 +0.9% -8.8% 67% 39% -8.0%
≤90d 137 +0.9% -8.8% 67% 39% -8.0%
all 137 +0.9% -8.8% 67% 39% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 39% -8.0%
10% -17.5% 28% -16.8%
15% -25.5% 19% -24.9%
20% -32.8% 9% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses92 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)137 / 143
History coverage420d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +17%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
United States vs. Australia: Second half draw? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.91 · official $62.91 (match) · 359 history records