Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
76 0x7613…57ce world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%37W / 54L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$8
other 23% −$6
politics 1% −$5
crypto 0% −$2
weather 0% −$7
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.3% -11.6% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 31 +4.0% -5.9% 32% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 37 +3.2% -6.7% 32% 5% -9.5%
all 91 -2.9% -12.1% 41% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses37 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage483d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $29 −$4 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $203 +$4 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $362 −$11 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 09 $130 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $139 +$16 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $144 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $153 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $323 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $346 −$8 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +9%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $304 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $76 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $130 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $185 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $8 +$1 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $64 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $119 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $232 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $165 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $168 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $155 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $169 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $73 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $205 +$9 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $167 +$6 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $411 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $25 −$3 -11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1,152 −$9 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $1,056 −$10 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $40 −$2 -6%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 13 $1,034 +$10 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $1,155 +$1 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Dec 25 $1 $0 -11%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 31 $5 $0 +4%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 29 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $61 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $107 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $107 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $190 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $191 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $11 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 15¢ $22 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $152 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $54 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $130 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $50 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $119 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $16 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 82¢ $171 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $44 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $44 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $130 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $130 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.63 · official $61.20 · 301 history records