Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
76 0x7619…2c5a crypto 679 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$270 (+0%) realized +$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate89%602W / 77L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$311
7 days+$493
14 days+$723
30 days+$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$194
other 3% +$71
sports 2% −$192
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +1.2% -8.5% 98% 2% -8.7%
≤30d 350 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 587 +1.1% -8.6% 91% 6% -9.4%
all 679 +0.0% -9.5% 89% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 12% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 9% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 5% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses602 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)679 / 679
History coverage103d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 679 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $928 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $919 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $909 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $901 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $892 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $884 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $876 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $755 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $567 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $855 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $847 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $839 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $831 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $824 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $816 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $808 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $801 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $793 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $786 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $778 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $771 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $764 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $756 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $746 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $742 +$7 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $729 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $646 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $717 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $710 +$7 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $662 +$48 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $655 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $649 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $643 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $637 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $631 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $625 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $619 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $613 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $608 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $601 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $595 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $590 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $585 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $576 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $186 +$2 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $596 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $590 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $584 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $928 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $919 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $901 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $892 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $884 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $876 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $755 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $535 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $855 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $847 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $839 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $831 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $824 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $816 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $808 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $801 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $793 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $786 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1551 history records