trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 85¢ | $1,553 | $1,450 | −$103 (-7%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | No | 77¢ | 86¢ | $1,003 | $1,119 | +$116 (+12%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | No | 88¢ | 64¢ | $639 | $471 | −$169 (-26%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Yes | 38¢ | 36¢ | $324 | $306 | −$18 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Jun 10 | $1,455 | +$25 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $2,087 | +$63 | +3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | Jun 04 | $990 | +$10 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $2,476 | +$95 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $562 | +$61 | +11% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | May 23 | $600 | +$26 | +4% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 16 | $106 | +$1 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 15 | $400 | +$4 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | May 13 | $200 | +$2 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | May 12 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | May 12 | $25 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +2.3% | -7.4% | 100% | 0% | -7.3% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 100% | 11% | -6.6% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 100% | 9% | -6.6% |
| all | 11 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 100% | 9% | -6.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.1% | 9% | -6.6% |
| 10% | -16.0% | 0% | -15.6% |
| 15% | -24.1% | 0% | -23.7% |
| 20% | -31.5% | 0% | -31.2% |