Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x761b…fb0a crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$18
sports 2% $0
other 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.3% -7.5% 76% 52% -6.8%
≤30d 25 +2.3% -7.5% 76% 52% -6.8%
≤90d 25 +2.3% -7.5% 76% 52% -6.8%
all 25 +2.3% -7.5% 76% 52% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 52% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 40% -15.7%
15% -24.4% 28% -23.8%
20% -31.8% 8% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$13 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$28 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.45 · official $17.46 (match) · 57 history records