Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x761e…db66 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$236 (+12%) realized +$241 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$160
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -5.6% -14.6% 38% 37% -18.3%
≤30d 52 -5.6% -14.6% 38% 37% -18.3%
≤90d 52 -5.6% -14.6% 38% 37% -18.3%
all 52 -5.6% -14.6% 38% 37% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 37% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 37% -26.1%
15% -30.2% 33% -33.3%
20% -37.0% 29% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$27 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$241
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage5d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $47 −$20 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $78 −$21 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $83 +$37 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $83 +$24 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $33 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$30 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $111 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $84 +$71 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $208 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $69 −$22 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$184 +439%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $58 +$59 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$82 +516%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$22 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $28 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $41 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $28 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $16 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $32 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $28 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $53 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $30 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $28 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $39 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $28 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $7.87 · 192 history records