Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
76 0x761f…cfbe world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+5%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$16
other 41% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.8% -0.6% 100% 50% +0.8%
≤30d 4 +6.9% -3.3% 75% 25% -4.7%
≤90d 4 +6.9% -3.3% 75% 25% -4.7%
all 4 +6.9% -3.3% 75% 25% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 25% -4.7%
10% -12.5% 0% -13.8%
15% -21.0% 0% -22.2%
20% -28.7% 0% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$2 · ×10.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.16 per $1 lost it wins $31.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage10d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Jun 22 $92 +$17 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $62 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $360 +$30 +8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $362 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $109 1h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $39 2h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 2h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 3h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $33 3h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 4h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 4h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 92¢ $360 10d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $360 10d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $362 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records