Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7621…2668 sports 1409 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1384W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$8
other 17% +$11
weather 16% +$11
crypto 2% +$1
finance 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 200 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1398 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 1407 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1384 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1407 / 1409
History coverage90d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Iraq (-4.5) Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Jiananxi vs. Choi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Naw vs. Oetzbach: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 160.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 36m
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 37m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $50 4h
Spread: Iraq (-4.5) BUY Senegal 100¢ $50 6h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $50 6h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $27 8h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $23 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 100¢ $50 15h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 100¢ $50 29h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 100¢ $50 29h
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 BUY No 100¢ $50 29h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 100¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 100¢ $50 2d
Jiananxi vs. Choi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $50 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 100¢ $50 3d
Naw vs. Oetzbach: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 2914 history records