Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x7622…a515 crypto 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+0%) realized +$70 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%74W / 19L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$56
politics 6% +$4
other 4% +$2
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 34 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 93 -5.3% -14.3% 80% 20% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 20% -9.2%
10% -22.5% 15% -17.9%
15% -30.0% 10% -25.8%
20% -36.9% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$639
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses74 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)93 / 100
History coverage233d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $600 $598 −$2 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 11¢ 38¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+249%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes 14¢ 40¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+189%)
Perena FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 19 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 10 $620 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Citrea FDV above $80M one day after launch? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? Jun 07 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? May 27 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 24? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 24? May 26 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 23 $597 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 20 $120 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? May 20 $230 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 17 $456 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10? May 15 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 10 $644 +$1 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 04 $582 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 23? Apr 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 23? Apr 26 $110 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 26 $400 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 13-19? Apr 23 $621 +$1 +0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 13? Apr 18 $624 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 11? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 11? Apr 13 $613 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 11 $10 +$1 +5%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 11 $607 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 19? Mar 26 $607 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 9-15? Mar 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 9-15? Mar 19 $505 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 7? Mar 15 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Mar 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 07 $604 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 8? Mar 07 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 08 $11 −$1 -9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January? Feb 08 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 08 $2,332 +$6 +0%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Feb 08 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? Feb 08 $5 +$1 +30%
Seeker FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 23 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $600 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $600 9d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $620 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $581 23d
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 23d
Citrea FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $600 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 25d
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $590 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $8 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $18 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $26 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $110 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $52 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $33 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $106 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $29 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $33 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $70 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $19 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $22 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $31 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $597 29d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $230 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $100 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $639.29 · official $639.29 (match) · 270 history records