Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7627…4f75 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-8%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$124
14 days−$13
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$52
sports 27% −$7
world 5% −$40
crypto 4% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +14.8% +3.9% 55% 55% +23.4%
≤30d 50 +1.4% -8.2% 42% 42% -12.2%
≤90d 50 +1.4% -8.2% 42% 42% -12.2%
all 50 +1.4% -8.2% 42% 42% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 42% -12.2%
10% -17.0% 40% -20.6%
15% -25.0% 38% -28.3%
20% -32.4% 32% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage16d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$19 +125%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$8 +155%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$21 +20%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$5 -51%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $10 +$13 +124%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $15 +$23 +152%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $20 −$19 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$8 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +237%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +324%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +249%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$12 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 07 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $34 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $122 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 14h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 14h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 15h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 44¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 100¢ $38 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 39¢ $15 41h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $30 43h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 67¢ $20 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 4¢ $1 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 28¢ $20 3d
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Moerani Bouzige BUY Moerani Bouzige 57¢ $15 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 7¢ $5 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records