trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -35.4% | -41.5% | 17% | 17% | -47.1% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -17.8% | -25.6% | 33% | 33% | -21.5% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -29.5% | -36.2% | 29% | 29% | -22.9% |
| all | 14 | -29.5% | -36.2% | 29% | 29% | -22.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.2% | 29% | -22.9% |
| 10% | -42.3% | 29% | -30.3% |
| 15% | -47.9% | 29% | -37.0% |
| 20% | -53.0% | 14% | -43.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 12¢ | $376 | $157 | −$219 (-58%) |
| Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 60¢ | 60¢ | $150 | $152 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $83 | −$17 (-17%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $50 | −$50 (-50%) |
| Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 36¢ | 8¢ | $200 | $47 | −$153 (-76%) |
| Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 21¢ | 4¢ | $200 | $37 | −$163 (-82%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $206 | −$120 | -58% |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $314 | −$91 | -29% |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $206 | −$26 | -12% |
| Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $102 | +$89 | +87% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 17 | $318 | −$318 | -100% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $18 | −$18 | -99% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $1,600 | −$1,091 | -68% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 09 | $550 | +$250 | +46% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 04 | $400 | −$11 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $920 | +$380 | +41% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $1,100 | +$677 | +62% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 24 | $1,775 | −$691 | -39% |
| Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? | May 10 | $16 | −$16 | -98% |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 09 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |