Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
76 0x7627…d94c crypto 23 markets active 6d ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$281 (+37%) realized +$281 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 54% +$410
crypto 31% −$216
finance 12% +$93
politics 3% −$5
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
all 22 +4.7% -5.3% 77% 14% +24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 14% +24.2%
10% -14.4% 14% +12.4%
15% -22.6% 14% +1.5%
20% -30.2% 14% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$44 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage454d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 20? Jan 21 $266 +$266 +100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 15? Jan 16 $144 +$144 +100%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 12? Jan 13 $93 +$93 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 9, 4AM ET Dec 10 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? Apr 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $6 81d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 87d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 20? BUY Down 50¢ $266 151d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 15? BUY Up 50¢ $144 153d
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 12? BUY Up 50¢ $91 156d
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 12? BUY Up 50¢ $1 156d
XRP Up or Down - December 9, 4AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $181 190d
XRP Up or Down - December 9, 4AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $35 190d
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $5 241d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 390d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $1 404d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? SELL No 100¢ $1 432d
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? SELL No 100¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 439d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 446d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 453d
Solana above $145 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 460d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.03 · official $11.03 (match) · 47 history records