Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
76 0x7628…f1a3 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$243 (+54%) realized +$244 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$173
14 days+$239
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$75
sports 45% +$158
tech 5% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +58.9% +43.7% 52% 52% +43.0%
≤30d 39 +71.3% +55.0% 54% 54% +41.9%
≤90d 39 +71.3% +55.0% 54% 54% +41.9%
all 39 +71.3% +55.0% 54% 54% +41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.0% 54% +41.9%
10% +40.2% 54% +28.3%
15% +26.6% 51% +15.9%
20% +14.2% 51% +4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +121% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage13d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$13 +83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 +$7 +68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $8 −$5 -65%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$12 +244%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +234%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$38 +747%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +237%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +249%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $34 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $20 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 10h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 24¢ $5 31h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming $3 32h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming $1 32h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $2 33h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 37¢ $5 33h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $11 33h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 65¢ $7 33h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 23¢ $5 34h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 44h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 45h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $18 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.31 · official $19.53 (match) · 75 history records