Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7628…12ad crypto 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$14 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate51%100W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$18
other 18% −$5
politics 18% −$4
sports 18% +$39
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +9.3% -1.1% 100% 12% -8.9%
≤90d 86 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 7% -9.5%
all 196 -6.2% -15.1% 51% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 8% -9.5%
10% -23.2% 8% -18.1%
15% -30.6% 8% -26.0%
20% -37.4% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses100 / 96
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)196 / 198
History coverage165d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 98¢ $111 $109 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 26 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 28? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 30 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $107 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $4 +$3 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $123 −$5 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $123 $0 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 Week of May 18 2 May 24 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 22 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 21 $123 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 19 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $120 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 18 $123 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $123 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $123 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs May 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Donna Vekić win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 14 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 12? May 13 $124 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $123 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 10? May 11 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? May 10 $123 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 08 $123 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 5? May 06 $123 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 April 27-May 3? May 04 $123 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 27 above $220? May 02 $124 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 01 $123 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $123 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 25? Apr 27 $123 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Martin Damm vs Jakub Mensik Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 25 $124 $0 -0%
Madrid Open: Madison Keys vs Shuai Zhang Apr 25 $1 +$2 +187%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $121 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $122 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $122 $0 +0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 23 $122 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 23 $122 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $97 26d
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 100¢ $11 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $94 28d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $14 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 29d
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $114 30d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ $4 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 96¢ $118 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 32d
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 Week of May 18 2 BUY No 100¢ $123 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $123 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 37d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $3 37d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 39d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $110 39d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals BUY New York Mets 57¢ $3 39d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $110 39d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $120 39d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $120 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 39d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 42d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs BUY fnatic 41¢ $3 42d
Will Donna Vekić win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 100¢ $120 42d
Will Donna Vekić win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 100¢ $120 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.95 · official $119.95 (match) · 396 history records