Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

76 0x7629…ef05 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$34 (+17%) realized +$36 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip

Net edge+39%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+44.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+60.0%	+44.8%	100%	100%	+44.8%
≤30d	2	+60.0%	+44.8%	100%	100%	+44.8%
≤90d	2	+60.0%	+44.8%	100%	100%	+44.8%
all	2	+60.0%	+44.8%	100%	100%	+44.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+44.8%	100%	+44.8%
10%	+30.9%	100%	+31.0%
15%	+18.3%	100%	+18.3%
20%	+6.7%	50%	+6.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +60% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$132

Realized+$36

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
ITF Palma Del Rio: Fangran Tian vs Viola Turini	Fangran Tian	70¢	69¢	$39	$38	−$1 (-2%)
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild	Thiago Seyboth Wild	85¢	84¢	$36	$36	−$0 (-1%)
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Kayo Nishimura	Kayo Nishimura	33¢	33¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+0%)
ITF Taipei: Gyeong Seo Lee vs Naho Sato	Gyeong Seo Lee	41¢	39¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Seo Yun Choi	Jun 25	$30	+$11	+38%
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Kanon Sawashiro	Jun 25	$30	+$25	+82%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild	BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild	85¢	$36	1h
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Kayo Nishimura	BUY Kayo Nishimura	33¢	$31	1h
ITF Taipei: Gyeong Seo Lee vs Naho Sato	BUY Gyeong Seo Lee	41¢	$31	1h
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Seo Yun Choi	SELL Miho Kuramochi	100¢	$42	2h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Kanon Sawashiro	SELL Ayumi Miyamoto	100¢	$55	2h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Fangran Tian vs Viola Turini	BUY Fangran Tian	70¢	$39	6h
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Seo Yun Choi	BUY Miho Kuramochi	72¢	$30	6h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Kanon Sawashiro	BUY Ayumi Miyamoto	54¢	$30	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.14 · official $132.14 (match) · 8 history records