Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x762a…4e55 tech 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-6%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 44% +$3
world 34% −$3
other 15% −$7
crypto 6% −$3
finance 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤30d 2 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
≤90d 13 -19.7% -27.3% 69% 8% -15.1%
all 15 -23.6% -30.8% 67% 7% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 7% -16.3%
10% -37.5% 0% -24.3%
15% -43.5% 0% -31.7%
20% -49.0% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage141d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $27 +$2 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 20 $25 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 28 $9 −$9 -98%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 28 $4 $0 +6%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Apr 28 $2 $0 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 8? Mar 30 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? Feb 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January? Jan 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $52 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $29 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $27 12d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $27 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $27 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $27 30d
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 95¢ $25 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 95¢ $25 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 97¢ $26 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 94¢ $25 37d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 62¢ $9 52d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 100¢ $4 52d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 94¢ $4 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 81d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 131d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 131d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $2 132d
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January? BUY No 97¢ $3 140d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.95 · official $51.95 (match) · 28 history records