Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
76 0x762a…ed42 sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$432 (-23%) realized −$473 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%20W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$579
14 days−$492
30 days−$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$584
sports 48% +$160
world 3% −$20
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +0.6% -9.0% 18% 15% -55.6%
≤30d 96 +14.3% +3.4% 21% 19% -38.6%
≤90d 96 +14.3% +3.4% 21% 19% -38.6%
all 96 +14.3% +3.4% 21% 19% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 19% -38.6%
10% -6.5% 19% -44.4%
15% -15.5% 19% -49.8%
20% -23.8% 19% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$16 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized−$473
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses20 / 76
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)96 / 105
History coverage14d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $69 $67 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 6¢ 60¢ $5 $50 +$45 (+892%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Iraq 43¢ 44¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -12%
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$29 -99%
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $2 +$38 +1830%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$31 +596%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 23 $9 $0 -5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $22 −$21 -97%
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Iraq to score first vs. France? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $8 +$20 +250%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 63¢ $20 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $47 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $31 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 54¢ $20 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 2d
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 54¢ $20 2d
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 36¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 55¢ $9 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.28 · official $370.28 (match) · 212 history records