Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x762e…4bf0 sports 627 markets active 1h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$178,144 (-9%) realized −$177,334 · open −$810
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%286W / 339L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,145per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$6,508est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$487
7 days−$3,043
14 days−$7,577
30 days−$19,460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$163,540
other 13% −$18,294
crypto 0% −$5,727
world 0% +$1,908
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +1.4% -8.3% 49% 46% -13.9%
≤30d 110 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 45% -21.3%
≤90d 314 -8.5% -17.3% 45% 43% -22.7%
all 625 -6.2% -15.2% 46% 45% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 45% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 44% -25.6%
15% -30.7% 43% -32.8%
20% -37.5% 42% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$3,250) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,151 vs −$2,360 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$177,334
Unrealized−$810
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses286 / 339
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$6,508
Open positions2
Markets (closed)625 / 627
History coverage404d
Avg bet$3,145
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 625 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Sweden 59¢ 20¢ $358 $118 −$240 (-67%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 53¢ $606 $37 −$570 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,034 −$1,672 -82%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,502 +$1,145 +76%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $912 +$593 +65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $490 +$421 +86%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $498 −$490 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $929 −$818 -88%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $491 +$439 +89%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $495 −$488 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,967 −$1,942 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2,205 −$2,177 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $981 −$960 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $2,728 +$1,426 +52%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,790 +$692 +25%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $969 −$753 -78%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3,944 −$3,178 -81%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,691 +$2,718 +101%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,560 +$1,656 +65%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,199 +$1,363 +114%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,118 −$920 -43%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $1,057 +$1,064 +101%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $505 +$551 +109%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $557 −$546 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $559 −$1 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $228 +$331 +145%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $209 +$19 +9%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $218 −$9 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,518 −$1,304 -86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $833 +$687 +82%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2,765 −$2,733 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,098 −$1,293 -62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,522 −$1,440 -57%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2,529 +$2,008 +79%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,001 −$1,269 -63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,337 −$1,543 -66%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,205 +$1,204 +55%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3,357 +$1,742 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,141 +$1,216 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $1,012 +$1,130 +112%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,980 −$969 -49%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $828 +$1,154 +139%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 13 $487 −$479 -98%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $1,100 −$1,087 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $491 +$607 +124%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1,968 −$1,940 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,386 −$2,358 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,556 +$1,796 +70%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,930 −$1,347 -70%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $2,370 +$1,533 +65%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 11 $1,464 +$908 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 59¢ $363 43m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No $362 49m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 53¢ $615 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2,034 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,502 15h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 61¢ $525 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 60¢ $164 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $35 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $138 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $1 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $41 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $7 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $912 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $490 20h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $498 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia $38 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia $73 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $929 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $930 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $491 2d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 41¢ $20 3d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 44¢ $7 3d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 44¢ $9 3d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 44¢ $3 3d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 44¢ $44 3d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 44¢ $2 3d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 44¢ $7 3d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 44¢ $7 3d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 43¢ $396 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.10 · official $152.06 · 1737 history records