Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7630…cfb0 crypto 591 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized −$64 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate57%465W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day77.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$684
other 10% +$782
sports 3% −$353
world 2% +$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 375 -66.9% -70.0% 27% 1% -52.3%
≤30d 664 -40.4% -46.0% 52% 1% -30.2%
≤90d 821 -34.9% -41.1% 57% 2% -24.8%
all 821 -34.9% -41.1% 57% 2% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.1% 2% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -46.7% 1% -32.0%
15% -51.9% 1% -38.6%
20% -56.6% 1% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1,803
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses465 / 356
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions15
Markets (closed)821 / 591
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day77.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 68¢ $295 $560 +$266 (+90%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 33¢ 32¢ $329 $315 −$14 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $240 $195 −$45 (-19%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $50 $140 +$90 (+179%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $225 $138 −$87 (-39%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $125 $112 −$12 (-10%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $75 $66 −$9 (-12%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $80 $56 −$24 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Up 47¢ 100¢ $14 $30 +$16 (+113%)
Will Panama reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Up 47¢ 42¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 286 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$18 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$18 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$9 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7AM ET Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 19 $3 −$64 -2144%
Will Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$18 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$128 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$18 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$9 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$18 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$98 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$18 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $14 10m
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 11m
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 30m
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 30m
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 40m
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $14 3h
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,803.36 · official $1,795.80 (match) · 3500 history records