Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7636…86cc other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$58 (+4%) realized +$55 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$43
sports 6% −$23
crypto 3% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -26.7% -33.7% 44% 44% -6.2%
≤30d 34 -26.7% -33.7% 44% 44% -6.2%
≤90d 34 -26.7% -33.7% 44% 44% -6.2%
all 34 -26.7% -33.7% 44% 44% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 44% -6.2%
10% -40.0% 41% -15.2%
15% -45.8% 32% -23.4%
20% -51.1% 24% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$20 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage6d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$31 +44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $75 +$34 +45%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $158 +$149 +94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 −$3 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$25 +69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 +$19 +69%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 +$10 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$30 +61%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$10 +28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$20 +56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$11 -76%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 +$9 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 −$27 -73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $32 +$12 +39%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 +$42 +144%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$12 +68%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$14 +67%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 45m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $67 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $47 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $62 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $84 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $75 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $40 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $44 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $73 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $88 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.62 · official $143.62 (match) · 73 history records