Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
76 0x7637…88e6 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$57 (+0%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%41W / 45L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$23
14 days+$20
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$9
world 38% +$27
politics 11% +$1
sports 2% +$5
finance 2% +$34
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.4% -8.2% 38% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 28 +1.2% -8.5% 43% 7% -9.0%
all 86 -1.5% -10.8% 48% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 1% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 1% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses41 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage473d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $183 $183 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 85¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $193 +$7 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $190 +$12 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $198 −$7 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $171 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $156 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $364 −$1 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $210 +$14 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $548 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $96 −$3 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $77 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $165 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $160 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $165 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $339 +$5 +1%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $22 +$3 +12%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $145 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $79 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $226 +$34 +15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $1,125 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $217 +$4 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $1,120 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $52 −$5 -9%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $2,250 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $892 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $1,022 +$1 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $2 −$1 -76%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27? Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $1 $0 +8%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +38%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Andrey Rublev reach the quarterfinals of the French Open? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 01 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114K on May 30? May 28 $30 $0 +1%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will 'DAN DA DAN' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 26 $11 $0 +3%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $183 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $139 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $183 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $3 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $199 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $190 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $75 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $97 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $179 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $132 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $21 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $150 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 42h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $65 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $26 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $51 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $173 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $131 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.12 · official $182.86 (match) · 319 history records