Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:49:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7637…ffcd other 41 markets active 13d ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (353 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,071 (-3%) realized −$3,071 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,184per market
Trades / day353.0pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$427
politics 34% +$364
other 13% −$92
sports 6% −$83
crypto 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (353 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -99.6% -99.6% 0% 0% -99.7%
≤30d 44 -5.8% -14.7% 48% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 44 -5.8% -14.7% 48% 7% -9.8%
all 44 -5.8% -14.7% 48% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover353.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 7% -9.8%
10% -22.9% 7% -18.5%
15% ← realistic here -30.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -37.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,596) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
43.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$79 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,071
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 41
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$2,184
Trades / day353.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 29 $239 −$236 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 29 $449 −$572 -127%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 29 $244 −$439 -180%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,214 +$6 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $175 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $6,241 +$11 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $224 −$24 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $426 −$20 -5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $9,033 +$314 +4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $8,775 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,127 −$26 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $15,349 +$47 +0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 14 $1,596 −$59 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $9,415 +$98 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4,405 −$8 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $213 +$8 +4%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 14 $641 −$2 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $7,355 +$86 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $1,479 −$18 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,202 −$6 -0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $628 +$21 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $643 +$1 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $4,640 +$4 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $646 +$160 +25%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $1,014 −$98 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $792 −$157 -20%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $164 +$33 +20%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $0 $0 -33%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $2,212 +$175 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $3,430 −$9 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $360 +$2 +1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $618 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $976 −$68 -7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 08 $287 $0 +0%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $536 +$22 +4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1,415 +$3 +0%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $346 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $453 +$133 +30%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 07 $25 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 13d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 13d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $6 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $183 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $161 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $206 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $205 13d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $135 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $6 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $207 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 49¢ $108 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $19 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $18 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $18 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $205 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $206 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $194 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records