Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:05:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x763c…25b2 crypto 522 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$929 (-0%) realized −$3,385 · open +$2,456
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate84%471W / 88L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$1,676per market
Trades / day105.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$128,897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$9,843
sports 14% +$292
other 9% +$2,393
tech 0% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -30.9% -37.5% 58% 2% -12.7%
≤30d 559 -9.5% -18.1% 84% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 559 -9.5% -18.1% 84% 3% -9.2%
all 559 -9.5% -18.1% 84% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 3% -9.2%
10% -25.9% 3% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -33.1% 2% -25.8%
20% -39.6% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,764) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$105 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$128,897
Realized−$3,385
Unrealized+$2,456
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses471 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions47
Markets (closed)559 / 522
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$1,676
Trades / day105.2
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25,582 $25,646 +$64 (+0%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $20,665 $22,149 +$1,484 (+7%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $13,808 $14,971 +$1,163 (+8%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,905 $5,914 +$9 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,694 $5,697 +$3 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,920 $3,922 +$2 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,797 $3,814 +$17 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 75¢ $3,636 $3,091 −$545 (-15%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $2,748 $3,014 +$266 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,544 $2,557 +$14 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,447 $2,454 +$7 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,449 $2,440 −$10 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,406 $2,426 +$20 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,328 $2,322 −$6 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 22-28? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,219 $2,226 +$6 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,067 $2,065 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,055 $2,056 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,012 $2,012 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,946 $1,934 −$12 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,767 $1,784 +$17 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 22-28? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,249 $1,256 +$7 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,233 $1,233 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,233 $1,233 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 22-28? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,225 $1,230 +$4 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,225 $1,224 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 78,200 on April 22, 8PM ET? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 5? Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET Jun 26 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Jun 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo leading at halftime? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $90 on May 6? Jun 26 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,000 on April 24, 10PM ET? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 7? Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 27? Jun 26 $158 −$158 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 29? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? Jun 26 $59 −$53 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 5? Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 2? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 29? Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $390 −$390 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8AM ET Jun 26 $168 −$324 -193%
Will Solana reach $100 on May 11? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29? Jun 26 $73 −$43 -59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? Jun 26 $109 −$47 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 26 $791 −$791 -100%
Solana Up or Down on May 2? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Jun 26 $659 −$659 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 26 $129 −$129 -100%
XRP Up or Down on May 2? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? Jun 26 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 2? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P Jun 26 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $999 31m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 33m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $14 35m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $499 35m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $246 35m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 35m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 36m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 38m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 41m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 41m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 41m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 41m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 41m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 41m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $11 44m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 45m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $876 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $333 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $399 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $706 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $335 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $285 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $399 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $551 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $625 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $484 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $223 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $118 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128,896.65 · official $128,801.67 (match) · 3500 history records