Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x763c…5287 other 13 markets active 2d ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4 (-28%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$3
politics 22% −$3
world 21% −$3
finance 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.1% -18.6% 17% 17% -29.4%
≤30d 8 -32.6% -39.0% 12% 12% -45.4%
≤90d 8 -32.6% -39.0% 12% 12% -45.4%
all 8 -32.6% -39.0% 12% 12% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 12% -45.4%
10% -44.8% 12% -50.6%
15% -50.1% 12% -55.4%
20% -55.0% 12% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $1 +$5 +440%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.88 · official $4.80 (match) · 20 history records