Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7641…eafc sports 334 markets active 5h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-6%) realized −$13 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%127W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$27
14 days−$45
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$5
world 26% −$121
other 10% −$51
finance 4% −$14
economics 4% +$38
weather 4% −$16
politics 3% −$5
crypto 3% −$4
tech 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -5.9% -14.9% 46% 41% -19.8%
≤30d 250 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 37% -10.4%
≤90d 308 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 37% -13.5%
all 308 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 37% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 37% -13.5%
10% -25.9% 29% -21.7%
15% -33.1% 21% -29.3%
20% -39.6% 10% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses127 / 181
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions26
Markets (closed)308 / 334
History coverage69d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 48¢ 62¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 32¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 47¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 34¢ 27¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 54¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 58¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 20¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 21¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 30¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 56¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 63¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 37¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $9 +$5 +61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +159%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $7 −$5 -61%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +53%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -22%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 15 $17 −$7 -39%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2 $0 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +38%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $23 +$5 +22%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $14 −$9 -59%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$2 +206%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -33%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 9¢ $1 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 13¢ $1 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $1 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $3 8h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $2 8h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 69¢ $8 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 18h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $3 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 18h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $2 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 22h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 24h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 59¢ $1 24h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 25h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.36 · official $35.38 (match) · 1154 history records