Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7644…13d7 crypto 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$778 (-7%) realized −$766 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%108W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$277
7 days−$277
14 days−$277
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,380
other 3% +$14
sports 1% −$40
politics 0% −$5
finance 0% +$23
tech 0% −$7
economics 0% −$10
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.4% -19.8% 40% 37% -26.9%
≤30d 30 -11.4% -19.8% 40% 37% -26.9%
≤90d 185 -12.7% -21.0% 32% 30% -29.2%
all 301 -5.9% -14.9% 36% 32% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 32% -21.8%
10% -23.0% 26% -29.3%
15% -30.5% 22% -36.1%
20% -37.3% 19% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$766
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses108 / 193
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)301 / 303
History coverage95d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $84 +$22 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $77 −$73 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $147 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $95 −$40 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $32 +$113 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $54 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $42 +$76 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $210 +$48 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $98 −$93 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $23 +$15 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$25 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $55 −$52 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $270 −$151 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $265 −$40 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $58 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $84 −$80 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $95 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$7 -27%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 +$55 +256%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 May 04 $26 −$3 -13%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 23 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 23 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 23 $9 +$18 +202%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 21 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Trump say "Blockade" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club end in a draw? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Elina Svitolina Apr 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $17 −$16 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$6 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $107 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $84 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $56 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $95 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $47 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $32 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.96 · official $282.96 (match) · 1235 history records