Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x764b…2999 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$100 (+10%) realized +$100 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$27
14 days+$39
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$64
sports 33% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.6% -17.3% 64% 45% -6.3%
≤30d 17 -16.7% -24.6% 59% 47% -5.6%
≤90d 17 -16.7% -24.6% 59% 47% -5.6%
all 17 -16.7% -24.6% 59% 47% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 47% -5.6%
10% -31.8% 35% -14.6%
15% -38.4% 12% -22.9%
20% -44.5% 12% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage14d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $21 +$15 +71%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $231 +$40 +17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$12 -82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$10 -47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $140 +$20 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$8 +25%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $6 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $140 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 79¢ $39 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 12d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 13d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 14d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records