Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x764b…1faf crypto 1290 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$882 (-6%) realized −$897 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%655W / 629L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$436
7 days+$607
14 days+$674
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$756
sports 33% +$261
finance 1% +$9
world 1% −$1
other 0% +$21
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 48% +2.8%
≤30d 740 -12.3% -20.6% 48% 43% -9.8%
≤90d 1284 -8.7% -17.4% 51% 45% -12.4%
all 1284 -8.7% -17.4% 51% 45% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 45% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 41% -20.8%
15% -32.5% 36% -28.5%
20% -39.1% 30% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$897
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses655 / 629
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1284 / 1290
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 80¢ $27 $37 +$10 (+37%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 57¢ 69¢ $30 $36 +$7 (+22%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox No 52¢ 36¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +78%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $356 +$518 +145%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $750 +$336 +45%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $174 −$76 -43%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $199 −$25 -13%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 16 $187 −$184 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$18 +69%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $37 +$4 +12%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 16 $75 −$74 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$13 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$47 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$27 -45%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $37 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$4 -9%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $47 +$16 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +92%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $68 −$26 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$14 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +55%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $32 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $26 −$18 -71%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$9 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$45 +78%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $24 −$2 -10%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $0 12m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $6 12m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $1 12m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $5 46m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 50m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $28 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 50¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.15 · official $78.16 (match) · 3500 history records