Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

76
0x764b…6bad
weather · 921 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$29,400 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15,970 · open −$12,773
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$534
Realized−$15,970
Unrealized−$12,773
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions498
Markets (closed)100 / 921
History coverage2d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1924.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 498 History 100 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,970
7 days−$15,970
14 days−$15,970
30 days−$15,970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Landry Shamet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Yes 3¢ 40¢ $1 $12 +$11 (+1128%)
Will Desmond Bane win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Jose Alvarado win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Landry Shamet win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will James Harden win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Jalen Johnson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Scottie Barnes win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Jamal Murray win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Brandon Miller win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Keldon Johnson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Paolo Banchero win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Kevin Durant win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Evan Mobley win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Brandon Ingram win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Luke Kornet win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Deni Avdija win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Jason Tatum win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Will Mitchell Robinson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $6 −$123 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1002%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $456 −$455 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $444 −$444 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $362 −$356 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $395 −$395 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $337 −$336 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $171 −$171 -100%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $288 −$288 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $652 −$651 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $52 −$49 -95%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $704 −$703 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $964 −$964 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $305 −$298 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$16 -88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $990 −$990 -100%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $342 −$342 -100%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $287 −$287 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $314 −$314 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $275 −$275 -100%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $415 −$415 -100%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $239 −$239 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $63 −$63 -99%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $331 −$320 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $735 −$735 -100%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $271 −$271 -100%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% −$17,438
weather 28% −$4,203
politics 12% −$1,142
tech 9% −$2,504
sports 7% −$1,341
finance 6% −$1,948
culture 3% $0
world 2% −$140
economics 1% −$28
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 0m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $30 0m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $30 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 2m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 91¢ $68 2m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 91¢ $27 2m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 32¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 3m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $30 3m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $30 4m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $30 4m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 5m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 7m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 7m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 7m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $10 7m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 8m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 92¢ $28 8m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $26 8m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $11 8m
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on I BUY No 88¢ $27 9m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 99¢ $30 10m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 87¢ $26 10m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? BUY No 98¢ $29 10m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 10m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? BUY No 98¢ $29 11m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $30 11m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 99¢ $24 11m
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-69.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -66.2% -69.4% 2% 2% -99.6%
≤30d 100 -66.2% -69.4% 2% 2% -99.6%
≤90d 100 -66.2% -69.4% 2% 2% -99.6%
all 100 -66.2% -69.4% 2% 2% -99.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1924.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.4% 2% -99.6%
10% ← realistic here -72.4% 2% -99.7%
15% -75.0% 2% -99.7%
20% -77.5% 2% -99.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $534.21 · official $529.19 (match) · 3500 history records