Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x764c…1f1e other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$6
world 29% −$5
politics 9% $0
sports 9% +$9
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 29% 14% -9.1%
≤30d 16 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 6% -10.7%
≤90d 16 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 6% -10.7%
all 38 +1.0% -8.6% 32% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 11% -9.7%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage256d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $26 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $22 −$3 -16%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $26 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $39 −$6 -16%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 17 $2 $0 +13%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $24 +$9 +35%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 17 $16 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 17 $2 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $26 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $26 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $26 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $26 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $26 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $26 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $26 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $26 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $26 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records