Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x764f…64a1 other 290 markets active 1d ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,098 (-5%) realized −$5,167 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%100W / 170L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day80.6pace
Fees−$863est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days−$6,886
14 days−$3,907
30 days−$3,907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$2,240
other 28% −$1,643
tech 1% +$116
world 0% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -2.3% -11.6% 39% 31% -45.3%
≤30d 270 +8.7% -1.6% 37% 30% -13.8%
≤90d 270 +8.7% -1.6% 37% 30% -13.8%
all 270 +8.7% -1.6% 37% 30% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 30% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 25% -22.0%
15% -19.6% 23% -29.5%
20% -27.5% 20% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$203 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,236
Realized−$5,167
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses100 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$863
Open positions19
Markets (closed)270 / 290
History coverage10d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day80.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $340 $378 +$38 (+11%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? No 79¢ 99¢ $146 $183 +$36 (+25%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 51¢ 100¢ $87 $171 +$84 (+97%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $138 $144 +$6 (+4%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $203 $117 −$86 (-42%)
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? Yes 48¢ 49¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 78¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $29 $32 +$4 (+13%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 62¢ $32 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 81¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+38%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 49¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 45¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 59¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 35¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $13 $7 −$7 (-49%)
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? Yes 70¢ 16¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-94%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 in June? Jun 25 $30 +$69 +233%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $45 +$21 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $326 +$129 +40%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $16 +$126 +785%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $37 +$42 +115%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $77 +$2 +3%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $795 +$1,499 +188%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $116 +$64 +55%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $50 +$318 +632%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $1,020 −$885 -87%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $788 −$781 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $123 +$8 +6%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $256 +$966 +378%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $128 +$15 +12%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $167 −$44 -27%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $640 −$326 -51%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $272 +$72 +27%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $714 −$18 -2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $303 +$55 +18%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $485 −$187 -38%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $190 +$6 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $250 −$246 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $106 −$105 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,887 −$1,868 -99%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2,020 −$1,987 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $443 −$432 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2,568 −$1,023 -40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $148 +$29 +19%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $797 −$650 -82%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $170 +$48 +28%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $871 +$137 +16%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $229 −$225 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $182 −$178 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $26 +$51 +197%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $803 −$789 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $80 −$78 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $359 −$349 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $5 32h
Stripe IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 2d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 47¢ $52 2d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 49¢ $205 2d
Stripe IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $18 2d
Stripe IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 2d
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 2d
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 4d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 48¢ $108 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $81 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $663 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $208 6d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $196 6d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $593 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $250 6d
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY No 84¢ $106 6d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $200 6d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $873 6d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $814 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 94¢ $123 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $50 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $11 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $11 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $11 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $184 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $14 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $222 6d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $290 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,235.83 · official $1,235.83 (match) · 992 history records